by Professor Justin McCarthy, University of Louisville,
Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.

In his paper, professor Justin McCarthy of the University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A., who is a historical demographer, presents population distribution maps that show that, in 1912, in every province of Anatolia, Armenian population (Gregorian, Catholic or Protestant) is a distinct minority. He points out that, if all the Armenians in the World had moved to the six provinces, muslims would still have been a majority. he points out that, slightly less than 600,000 Anatolian Armenians died during 1912-1922, and adds that in the same period 2.5 million Anatolian moslems, mostly Turks, also died.

In the light of Armenian claims of 1.5 million Armenian died, it would be useful to examine the validity of the Armenian assertion. Boghos Nubar Pasha stated that 280,000 Armenians remained in the Ottoman Empire after the war, while some 700,000 emigrated elsewhere. This statement indicates that some 980,000 Armenians survived the war. The number of Armenian dead may be obtained by subtracting this figure from the estimated Armenian population in the Ottoman Empire before the war. The results are as follows:

(A) Claimed or estimated population (B) Number of Armenian dead
1. The Armenian author Leard, based on figures provided by the Patriarch of Istanbul: (A) 2,560,000 (B) 1, 580,000
2. The Armenian historian Basmajian: (A) 2,380,000 (B) 1,400,000
3. The Armenian National Committtee at the Paris Peace Conference: (A) 2,250,000 (B) 1,270,000
4. The Armenian historian Kevork Aslan: (A) 1,800,000 (B) 820,000
5. The French Yellow Book: (A) 1,555,000 (B) 575,000
6. Encyclopedia Britannica: (A) 1,500,000 (B) 520,000
7. Contenson: (A) 1,400,000 (B) 420,000
8. Lynch: (A) 1,345,000 (B) 365,000
9. Official Ottoman Census statistics for 1914: (A) 1,295,000 (B) 315,000
10. Annual Register (London) (A) 1,056,000 (B) 76,000

It can be seen that, the 600,000 figure given by professor McCarthy, is higher than all non-Armenian figures and close to the figure provided by the Armenian historian Kevork Aslan. In addition, Armenians in the early years after the war, as well as 1918 edition of Encyclopedia Britannica also gave the 600,000 figure. The Encyclopedia Britannica figure, was later revised to 1.5 million when the article was authored by an Armenian. In the 1918 edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica, the entry was written by a British author.

The paper by professor McCarthy is followed by a table showing in detail the population as well as proportions of the population by ethnic groups in Anatolia during 1911-1912. The tables are taken from pp.110 and 111 of Muslims and Minorities, The Population of Ottoman Anatolia and the End of the Empire, by Justin McCarthy, New York University Press, New York and London, 1983.

From the figures in the paper and in Tables 6.1 and 6.2, it is seen that, in no provinces in Anatolia, the proportion of Armenian population exceeded 31.3 percent. In the "six vilayets" (Sivas, Mamuret-ulaziz, Erzurum, Bitlis, Van and Diyarbakir), Armenians constituted 22.3 percent of the population.